Course Direction Analysis of Hardrock

Each year Hardrock 100 is run in the opposite direction as it was run the previous time.  While the same ground is covered, the uphills become the downhills creating different challenges for the runners.  One common theory is that the clockwise course is faster.  At first glance this makes sense because in 2008 Kyle Skaggs's unbelievable 23:23 finish came in the clockwise direction.  Then came Kilian Jornet's 22:41 in 2014 on the clockwise course.

The logic is that on the clockwise course, the runners go up the "walls" and down the "ramps".  While climbing the walls might require a slower pace than the ramps, the walls are shorter which means fewer miles at a slow pace.  The ramps lead to a faster downhill pace than the walls because the walls are so steep its hard to get moving fast.  This means more miles downhill at a faster pace.  When this all gets added up, it means on the clockwise course, runners will gain a little time on the uphill because the uphills are shorter and a little more time on the downhills because the downhills are faster.  I have run enough hills that I can say from personal experience, you are almost always better off going up the steep route and down the gentle grade, at least when you are looking to go fast.  So on the surface, this theory seems to hold.  The steeps ups and "easy" downs on the clockwise course have yielded that fastest times in the history of the race.

However, I've always been a little skeptical of this theory.  I have never been to Hardrock so there are certainly other people who know the course a lot better than I do, but here's my opinion.  First, looking at the elevation profiles of the clockwise and counterclockwise courses, the uphills and downhills look equally steep in both directions (images below).  Second, there's the snow.  Since 1992, Hardrock has been cancelled twice because of snow (2019 and 1995).  Snow conditions vary and there are years when runners face a lot more snow than other years.  Sometimes its good as glissading down the snow is a lot faster than picking your way through technical terrain.  But it can be bad too, as slipping and sliding up a steep snowy slope is a lot slower than a dirt trail.  Also, Diana Finkel's course record of 27:18, set on the counterclockwise course, is substantially faster than the women's clockwise record of 28:32 also set by Diana Finkel.

From the 2018 Hardrock Runners Manual

From the 2017 Hardrock Runners Manual

While speculation is a lot of fun, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the theory about which direction at Hardrock is faster.  To do this, I imported all the Hardrock finishing times into an excel spreadsheet and calculated average times for each course.

Counterclockwise: Average time: 39.66 hours, Standard Deviation: 5.78 hours

Clockwise: Average time: 40.00 hours, Standard Deviation: 5.58 hours

So, it looks like the counterclockwise course is faster, just the opposite of the walls-and-ramps theory.  And doing a quick two-tailed t-test, we can say with 80% confidence that there is a statistically significant different in the average times.  In statistics, 80% confidence is not very high, but it does show that there is some difference between the times based on course direction.  And with the average counterclockwise time being faster, it almost certainly means that the clockwise course is NOT faster.  Right?...

Well, I created a histogram (images below) of the time from each course and these start to tell a different story.  First, the histograms reveal the times are not normally distributed which is one of the assumptions when using a t-test.  This means that the t-test might not be an accurate evaluation of the data.  When looking at the histograms, the right side of the normal distribution(if it is a normal distribution) is cutoff which is likely due to the 48-hour race cutoff.  The clockwise direction sees the most finishers in the 43-48 hour range while the counter-clockwise direction sees the most in the 47-48 hour range.  Additionally, the shape of the distributions is different.  If these were normal distributions, with the right sides cutoff, then it looks like the "mean" value of the normal distribution for the clockwise course would be around 46 hours and the "mean" value of the normal distribution for the counterclockwise course would be >48 hours.  Of course, now I'm starting to speculate again which is what I was trying to avoid in the first place.  At this point, I haven't shown one direction to be faster than the other.  To show one direction is faster, I will need to acquire some more stats skills to be able to deal with these (not normal) time distributions.  In the meantime....keep speculating.

Counterclockwise Histogram

Clockwise Histogram

Combined Histogram

Beaverhead 100K

Beaverhead 100K started at 5:00 am on Bannock Pass on the border between Idaho and Montana.  I was thinking that I wouldn’t need a headlight to start the race because 5:00 am was pretty light back in Corvallis.  But as 5:00 am approached it became clear that I would need a light.  Fortunately, we brought a few lights for the race, so Dad gave me a handheld light just before I took off.

The start
Photo: Jacob Miller

We counted down the last ten seconds, then took off up the road.  Less than a quarter mile up the road we turned off onto the trail and headed into the sagebrush.  I was first onto the trail with a few other runners close behind, but it didn’t take us too long to start to spread out.  There were a few places in the dark early miles where I had to look twice to see which way to go as the trail was a little rough and overgrown in spots.  However, that was a small price to pay for the views you get at the front of the line.  Before the first aid station I saw a deer and two pairs of elk.

Around 30 or 40 minutes into the race, we had all started to spread out a little bit more.  There was one runner maybe 30 seconds behind me and maybe a few other about that far back from him, but it was a little hard to tell.  It was still a bit dark and the trail didn’t make too many turns where I could look back.

I ran through the first aid station because it was only 4.5 miles in, and I started with a liter of water.  By the first aid station I had turned out my light but was surprised that I had needed to light for the first 30 minutes.

We climbed a little more after the first aid station, then began descending down to a big open meadow.  I think this meadow was the prettiest part of the course.  We traversed across the meadow then began ascending some switchback on the other side.  Just before we started climbing, Jakub Galczynski was maybe 30 seconds behind me, but it seemed like I was pulling away as we ascended.  I looked back across the meadow but couldn’t see anyone else coming.  I lost sight of Jakub as we entered some trees and I didn’t see him when the trail opened up into another meadow.  I knew that I was gaining a little ground going uphill but didn’t want to be giving it back on the downhill, so I was glad no to see him as we started the next climb.

After following a trail for the entire race, the course turned onto an ATV track.  The ATV track made a steep ascent along the ridge before it levelled off and rolled into the second aid station.  Here I refilled my bottles then headed out.  I looked back as I left the aid station to see if anyone was coming but no one was in sight.  I figured I could see about a minute back and that it would probably take a minute to fill up at the aid station giving me at least a 1-2 minute lead.

The next few miles were on fairly smooth ATV track.  Most of the time I was focused on giving a solid effort without pushing too hard early on.  There were a couple hills where I hiked for 20 or 30 seconds, but mainly I was able to keep running along at a pretty steady effort.  This section was mostly small climbs and descents which made it easy to keep a relatively constant effort.  There were also two short patches of rock-hard snow here.

I ran through aid station 3 and without stopping to fill my bottles.  Like aid station 1, I had planned to skip it because I thought I’d have plenty of water.  Seeing no need to change my plan, I kept running down the ATV track.

On the descent down to aid station 4 there were a few rough sections of ATV track, but also some smooth sections.  At bottom of the hill, the race turned off onto some overgrown single-track.  We climbed around a hillside, descended down a brushy trail then continued on.  We climbed around another hillside then headed into an open meadow where the trail was little more than an elk track.  After traversing the meadow, the course turned onto a road.  For some reason I was expecting the aid station to be much closer to the bottom of the descent, so this section seemed to be taking a long time.  After hitting the road, I followed it for a few minutes then climbed up the trail to aid station 4, Lemhi Pass.  Dad and Jacob were able to crew me at this aid station, so I got an ice bandana, some gels, and two new water bottles.

Climbing up to Lemhi Pass
Photo: Jacob Miller

Still going up
Photo: Jacob Miller

Leaving the aid station, the trail climbed up pretty steeply.  I ran all this section and once I reached the trees the trail levelled off a bit.  There were a few rocky sections where the trees opened up a little more, but there wasn’t really any chance to look out and get a view on this climb.  Once I reached the top of the climb, there were a few more rollers before the trail dropped down to aid station 5, Warm Springs Road.  This downhill had some rocky sections but there was enough smoother trail I could run the downhill pretty fast.

On the 100 yards of road at Lemhi Pass aid station
Photo: Jacob Miller

Dad and Jacob were able to crew at aid station 5 as well, so I got water bottles, more gels, and another ice bandana before taking off down the trail.  There were a few gradual climbs and descents leaving the aid station, but none of the climbs were very steep so I was able to keep a faster pace through this section.  Between here and Cutout, aid station 6, the course was all in the trees except for a few burns.  The trail was mostly gradual, so I was able to make good time this whole section.  At Cutout, Jacob gave me another ice bandana, two more bottles, and a bunch of gels.  Dad and Jacob had split up at this point and Dad had gone back to Lemhi Pass to crew Mom.

Coming into Cutout aid station I was starting to pass some 55K runners but leaving Cutout I really started to pass a lot of people.  I like running by myself, especially later in races as I usually have built a good rhythm.  When I’m out there on my own I can run each section of trail exactly how I want to.  With other people, you can’t because you have to get their attention and find a way to get around them.  A couple people is no problem, but I ended up having to pass quite a few.

Outside of more runners, the trail was a bit rockier and the trees were a bit thinner.  I felt like I was running well, but there were a few grinding climbs that were starting to feel pretty tough.  Still I felt like I was moving along well.  At least until I hit the snow.  That when things started to slow down a bit.  Unlike the rock-hard snow of the early morning, this snow was soft snow.  I don’t think I was ever on snow for more than a minute at a time, but there were quite a few small patches and even 10 or 15 steps sinking into the snow slows me down a bit.  Some sections were just a bit slick and I didn’t sink in too much, but there were a lot of sections where I’d sink in at least 8 inches.  Not great for speed, but since I couldn’t change it, I just tried my best to keep moving fast.

As I neared Goldstone Pass aid station, the trail climbs up to the ridge and follows it right on the crest.  The trail got pretty rocky here and the ascents and descents were a bit steeper and rougher.  There were probably a lot of nice views here, but I was pretty focused on the trail, so I didn’t look out much.  I finished up my water a little bit before I reached Goldstone Pass, but fortunately I wasn’t thirsty when I got there.  I hurried through the aid station and headed out to Janke Lake which I was told was just 4.7 miles away.

From Goldstone Pass to Janke Lake, the trail was still rocky and rough, but there was a couple section of ATV track which were a little easier to run.  Most of this terrain was still running for me, but there were a few times I had to hike.  I’d like to think this was because the terrain was steep or snowy, but it was probably because I was getting tired.  I really don’t remember too much about this section other than working pretty hard, passing a lot of people, and wondering what the scree field would be like.

From Janke Lake, we started down which surprised me.  I thought we were just going to head straight up the ridge and hop along the talus for a while.  Soon enough though the trail started up toward the ridge and back into a little bit of snow.  I can’t remember the climb up to the talus too specifically other than trying to run a bit of it, then giving up and hiking; initially because it was tough to run on the snow or through the scrubby trees and rocks around the snow, and later because the footing on the rocks got so bad it was easier to walk.

On the talus I hiked up, shuffled down, and looked for flags.  There wasn’t a lot of places for flagging and I was looking approximately 3 feet ahead which made it difficult to spot any flags.  Of course, it was pretty clear to just stay on the ridge, but my fear was that when the course turns left and leaves the the ridge, I might miss the turnoff and keep trucking along through the talus.  The turnoff was completely obvious, so I had nothing to worry about.

Once we left the talus, we got on a rough old road which climbed up gradually.  At this point, I was glad to be running again as the talus was a bit tedious.  After a little bit of up, we headed down the hill down a steep, loose trail.  I much preferred this section to the talus since I could actually run.  After leaving the trail we hit a rocky road and descended a few minutes before reaching the final aid station.  I filled one bottle and took off.

The road out of the aid station was pretty rocky to begin with.  I was told I’d cross the creek twice before the finish so I was looking for it.  It wasn’t long before I splashed through the creek the first time and only a minute or so later before the second time.  The second time it was knee deep for me which felt pretty good as it was getting warm out.  After the creek, the road was a little smoother as there was a bit of grass on the road which covered some of the rocks and help keep the dirt in place.  There were a couple sections where there was a bit of water flowing down the road and a few sections where the road got a bit rockier but overall it got smoother and faster as I descended.

We left the road and headed on to a trail into the sagebrush.  Now that we were at the bottom of the valley and in the direct sunlight it started to feel warm.  I knew I was close to the end though so I ran as fast as I could.  I knew there was a few short hills before the finish but wasn’t sure how many.  It ended up being three, but after each one, I was hopeful that it would be the last one.  After the last hill, we headed down a trail which looked like it was halfway between a cow trail and a real trail.  Fortunately, all the sagebrush had been cut back, so it was pretty easy smooth running.  After just a few minutes of downhill, I crossed a creek and then could see the finish line less than a minute out.  I finished in 9:31 which was good enough for the win and course record.  I was pretty pumped about that because the extra snow on the course probably made it a little slower than previous years.

We descended down the valley between the open hill and the treed hill behind me.  Then we crossed over the open hill doing a few small climb in the process before descending to the creek (where the close trees are) and finishing
Photo: Jacob Miller

Masks required at the Start, Finish, and Aid Stations
Photo: Jacob Miller

Photo: Jacob Miller

Thanks to Dad and Jacob for crewing for me all day.  Being able to have crew at Lemhi Pass, Warm Springs Road, and Cutout definitely was great.  Also, that to Injinji, which kept my feet comfortable all day, SNB, I had no chafing (although sunburn was a different story), and VFuel as I had no stomach issues all day.

Yeah, this spring was a little weird with so many races being cancelled so I was happy to be able to race.  I was feeling strong all spring so I was excited to see what I could do at a race.  Race day is a lot different than training though, so I was glad to see that not only was I feeling good, but I could race fast too!

Mom ran Beaverhead 100K too, but unfortunately, she missed the cutoff at Goldstone Pass at mile 47.5 by 2 minutes.  This was especially unlucky because her watch got paused early on in the race (probably climbing over some blowdown – there was only a little bit but two or three trees right away), so she wasn’t sure of the exact race time.  I’m sure she would have got it done had she known the time more accurately, especially since the last cutoff at Janke Lake, 4.7 miles later, was extended from 7:30 pm to 7:45 pm.

I really enjoyed Beaverhead and I think I’ll go back some day soon.  It was a fun, tough course with some amazing views.  The race directors did a good job putting on the race so I should give them a big thank you!  And thanks to all the volunteers out there!  There are a lot of aid station that are tough to get to which makes it tough to put on the race.  But having those remote aid station sure leads to a beautiful course!  Thanks everyone...I hope to be back soon.

Memorial Day Backpacking

DAY 1

The drive to Pole Creek trailhead seemed to have a lot more washboards than previous years, but that certainly did not deter people this Memorial Day weekend.  In fact, there were more cars than ever.  I'd guess 2 or 3 times as many as usual.

After putting on sunscreen in the parking lot, we started up the trail and encountered quite a few people along the way.  One other change from previous years was the blowdown.  This year there was a lot.  I guess the trees that burned in Pole Creek fire a few years ago have finally got weak enough they started falling.  Or it may be that no trail crews had been able to get up to Pole Creek yet because of the COVID-19.  However, we usually don't see many fresh-cut trees so I'm guessing it was just a bad year for blowdown.  This made going a little tedious as we ended up slowing down to step over a lot of trees.

Broken Top - we are still climbing and haven't put the skis on yet

South Sister

Once we hit the snow, we hiked for a little bit, but then opted for skis.  Hiking in the snow can get slow, but if the snow is patchy or too steep, it's easier to be walking than trying to ski.  This year we put the skis on early which was a good call as there snow was pretty deep right away and we didn't hit any bare patches.

South Sister ahead - skis on now!

We made pretty good headway skiing up through the snow and were able to follow some track of people heading toward Chambers Lakes.  We typically camp in the same spot each year, so that was our aim for this year as well.  This time I took us on a little detour that took us a little ways past our intended camp site then dropped back down to reach the site.  The intent was to avoid going straight up the hill and instead take a gentler route.  Unfortunately this lead to some steeper side slopes which were not too popular with the rest of the group.

Some afternoon clouds by South Sister

South Sister

DAY 2

We began the climb up to Middle Sister Saddle with a grey sky.  Not dark at all, but a thin layer of high clouds which would burn off later.  However this lighting made it very hard to see the undulations in the snow making skiing downhill a little tricky.

Dad climbing toward Middle Sister

North Sister - we are climbing toward the Middle Sister Saddle

On the climb up to Middle Sister Saddle, we didn't see too many people.  I'd say fewer people than usual which was interesting because there were so many cars in the parking lot.  The climb up to the saddle is fairly long and by the time we reached the saddle the snow was starting to get a bit heavy.  We did see a few people who were heading down as we reached the saddle.  I guess they were trying to get up earlier to have better snow conditions.

Broken Top and South Sister

Three Fingered Jack sticking up in the pass

Prouty Point

Middle Sister

Fresh snow on Prouty Point

We intended to have a quick snack at the saddle, but it was pretty windy so we decided to eat on the move.  We left our skis at the saddle as all the terrain above that is far too steep for us to ski.  This year there was a pretty good set of boot tracks leading toward Middle Sister so we were optimistic that we'd make it to the top.  There was also quite a bit more snow than usual and some fresh snow as well.  On the way up to the saddle, we saw many more avalanches come off Middle Sister than every before because of the recent snow.

The boot tracks made the initial climb easier and looked promising on the steepest pitch as well.  However, when we reached the steep pitch the tracks were not very deep and were often sloping outward from the mountain.  I started up kicking in better steps, but the snow underneath was pretty hard so it was slow going.  After a little while of slow ascending we decided to turn back and head down.  The snow was a little hard, the steps weren't great, and it looked like everyone else who had gone up was using crampons.  However, this opened up another opportunity for us as we now had a little more time than usual.

Looking west - somewhere on the horizon is Mary's Peak

Snow blasted onto the rocks

The Cascade volcanoes all lined up

Broken Top, Mt. Bachelor, and South Sister

Middle Sister

Middle Sister

With the extra time, we skied down from Middle Sister then headed toward Chambers Lakes to get a good view of South Sister.  We have headed this way in previous years instead of trying to go up Middle Sister, but more recently we've just been going up Middle and heading down.  Getting around toward South Sister and Chambers Lakes was fun.  The terrain was a bit flatter which was good because the snow was heavy and getting tough to ski in.  After overlooking Chambers Lakes, we headed back to the tent.

South Sister

Dad disappearing over the hill

Middle Sister and North Sister

Dad with North Sister in the background

 DAY 3

Dad and I woke up with sunburns today.  For me it was just my forehead because I didn't put any sunscreen there.  I hate sunscreen in my eyes and decided to risk it which was not a good move on the snow.  Dad put on sunscreen all over, but he still got toasted.  Fortunately Mom's darker skin helped her.

Anyhow, after packing up some of our gear we make a quick trip up toward North Sister.  There a nice snowfield below North which we skied up.  We left the skis and hiked up the ridge a little ways to get a better view.  The ridge was a little windy so we didn't stay too long.  After getting back to the skis we enjoyed a nice downhill back to the tent.  The snow was pretty good as it was still fairly early in the morning.

A cloud cap on Middle Sister

North Sister

Black Butte farthest to the right

Clouds building by Broken Top and South Sister

Middle Sister

North Sister

After packing up the tent we skied down toward the trail.  This year we were able to follow a few sets of tracks which took to pretty near the trail.  Typically the ski tracks from just a few days earlier are already getting melted out and we end up carrying our skis through the snow for a while before reaching the trail.  This year we were lucky and didn't have to pack the skis too long before we were back on dirt.  The day clouded up a little bit and what looked to be a hot hike out ended up being pretty cool and overcast.  This was appreciated because it can get pretty warm in the burn as there's no shade from the sun.

The hike back to the car was pretty uneventful.  We hopped over the same logs we crossed on the way out and didn't see too many people.  There were still quite a few cars at the trailhead when we got back, but a lot less than when we arrived.  After a quick march across the parking lot, we threw the packs in the car and headed home.

A few shooting stars